The Detroit Lions want to extend Jared Goff, here's what that is projected to cost

Carr has a slight advantage over Goff in the efficiency metrics such as yards per attempt and EPA/drop back, but Goff has the slight edge in volume statistics like yards and touchdowns, with fewer interceptions.

Goff also has a few additional feathers in his cap. While his “weighted PFF grade” (taking the PFF grade of each of the last three seasons and weighting them on a 5-4-3 scale with greater emphasis on the most recent season) are nearly identical, the trends for the two quarterbacks are in stark contrast. Goff’s grade in 2021 was a 60.3, moving to 72.4 in 2022 and peaking this past year at 84.4.

Compare that to Carr, whose PFF grade had been in a steady decline before he joined the Saints last year (84.7 in 2020, 76.3 in 2021 and 66.6 in 2022).

Additionally, narratives do play a role in contract negotiations. The narratives between Carr last year and Goff this year run a consistent parallel with that PFF trend. Carr had been benched at the end of the 2022 season and left the team. The benching was not due to poor performance, but rather because the Raiders feared him suffering an injury that would guarantee his 2023 salary, leaving them in a position where they would be unable to part ways with their all-time passing leader.

Add onto that the fact that Goff is coming off of being just a few plays short of his second Super Bowl and you have a narrative that goes well beyond the similarity in their production. And there needs to be accounting for the fact that extensions tend to outpace free agent deals.

Carr’s $37.5 million APY represented 16.68% in the year of signing. If Goff were to simply get that same percentage of this year's cap, which is projected to be $252 million, his APY would be just over $42 million.

But adjusting for the improved trajectory, narrative et cetera and Goff’s deal will likely come in around 18 - 19% of this year’s salary cap. That would put him in the range of $45.5 - $48 million per year. At 29 years old Goff could push for a five-year pact, but four is most likely where the two sides agree on. That extension would take him through his age-33 season.

Recent quarterback extensions have seen the signal caller receive just over 50% of the full value fully guaranteed. Those terms would look something like this:

Four-years, $190 million with $100 million fully guaranteed

This would be all new money, so once the final year on his current deal was added in the full terms would be:

Five-years, $217,300,064, $127million fully guaranteed

Given that Lions general manager Brad Holmes was in the Rams front office when they signed Goff to his current deal, that sets a good template for what the potential extension could look like. Using Over The Cap’s contract constructor here is what that deal might look like:

The structure of this deal would effectively tie Detroit to Goff for the 2024 - 2026 seasons. In 2027 they would be able to part ways with a minimal cap hit. At the same time it would grant them a little over $13 million in cap savings in 2024.